Nasdaq starts November with 1% loss as tech melts down again
Investors continued to move out of technology stocks and add exposure to other parts of the market. Marvell fell almost 13% and Lumentum 18% after Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum in a $115 billion deal, and Oracle fell about 8% after saying it plans to sell $10 billion in common stock plus $10 billion in bonds to fund its AI buildout. Gains in old-economy stocks such as Sherwin-Williams and Home Depot powered the Dow. CNBC
Marvell to purchase Lumentum for $115 billion in record-breaking AI tech deal, both stocks tank
Lumentum shareholders will receive 4.5 Marvell shares for each share they own, an exchange ratio that implied $1,132 per share at October 28 prices, in what would be the largest merger between two publicly traded companies on record. The all-stock structure leaves Lumentum holders exposed to Marvell's recent decline, which has steadily reduced the value of the payout. Marvell CEO Matt Murphy said AI infrastructure is undergoing a fundamental architectural shift toward optical connectivity. Yahoo Finance
Crude oil prices sell off more than 7% on Iran peace talk hopes ahead of U.S. midterms
WTI shed 7.4% to close at $96.46 a barrel, its biggest daily loss since July 27, and Brent lost 7.6% to settle at $104.77. President Trump said Iran wants to "make a deal and that could happen," and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran is seeking to resolve problems through dialogue. The market had priced in the risk of a major military escalation after the elections, gaining more than 10% in October. CNBC
Gold rises from one-year low on softer oil prices; U.S. midterms in focus
U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 1.8% higher at $3,969.60 an ounce as the drop in oil eased inflation concerns. Traders still see roughly a 75% chance of a December rate hike, slightly lower than a week earlier. CNBC
| Asset | Close | Chg | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500^GSPC | 7,541.40 | -38.67 | -0.51% |
| Nasdaq Composite^IXIC | 25,164.32 | -272.68 | -1.07% |
| Dow Jones^DJI | 51,983.98 | +213.67 | +0.41% |
| CBOE Volatility Index^VIX | 21.15 | +1.73 | +8.91% |
| U.S. Dollar IndexDXY · 4:00 PM ET | 101.76 | -0.14 | -0.13% |
| Brent CrudeICE Jan '27 · 2:30 PM ET settle | $104.77 | -$8.66 | -7.63% |
| WTI CrudeNYMEX Dec '26 · 2:30 PM ET settle | $96.46 | -$7.66 | -7.36% |
| GoldCOMEX Dec '26 · 1:30 PM ET | $3,969.50 | +$70.50 | +1.81% |
| Tenor | Close | Chg | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-MonthT-bill | 4.06% | 0bp | +0.00% |
| 3-MonthT-bill | 4.16% | -2bp | -0.48% |
| 6-MonthT-bill | 4.25% | -3bp | -0.70% |
| 1-YearT-note | 4.36% | -6bp | -1.36% |
| 2-YearT-note | 4.56% | -5bp | -1.08% |
| 5-YearT-note | 4.71% | -7bp | -1.46% |
| 10-YearT-note | 4.94% | -4bp | -0.80% |
| 30-YearT-bond | 5.31% | -1bp | -0.19% |
November opened with a rotation rather than a liquidation: the S&P 500 fell 38.67 points, or 0.51%, to 7,541.40 and the Nasdaq Composite 272.68 points, or 1.07%, to 25,164.32, while the Dow rose 213.67 points, or 0.41%, to 51,983.98 and the VIX climbed 1.73 to 21.15, an 8.91% increase. Nine of eleven sectors advanced, led by Consumer Discretionary (+2.41%), Financials (+1.86%) and Materials (+1.76%), while Energy (-3.96%) and Technology (-2.95%) absorbed the selling. The optical and AI-infrastructure complex extended Friday's reset: Lumentum (-18.59%) and Marvell Technology (-12.72%) were the weakest S&P 500 names after agreeing to a $115 billion all-stock combination, joined by Ciena (-11.34%), Everpure (-10.40%) and Intel (-8.80%). IDEXX Laboratories (+21.85%) led gainers after topping third-quarter earnings and revenue estimates and raising its 2026 guidance, ahead of Howmet Aerospace (+6.91%), Pentair (+6.49%), CRH (+6.36%) and DoorDash (+6.19%).
The day's macro driver was a sharp unwind of the Iran risk premium. January Brent settled $8.66 lower at $104.77 and December WTI $7.66 lower at $96.46, WTI's largest daily decline since July 27, as both Washington and Tehran signaled openness to a negotiated outcome, removing a large part of the October gain that had priced escalation after the midterms. Lower crude fed directly into the inflation and rate outlook: gold recovered 1.81% to $3,969.50 (1:30 PM ET print) from Friday's one-year low, the dollar eased (DXY 101.76, -0.14), and pricing still implies a December rate hike as the most likely outcome, though with slightly lower odds than a week ago. Treasury had not published Monday's yield curve at the time of writing; the last prints, from Oct 30, 2026, had the 2-year at 4.56% and the 10-year at 4.94%.
Tuesday's midterm elections are the week's first event risk, alongside September JOLTS and factory orders at 10:00 AM. Wednesday brings the October ADP report at 8:15 AM, Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement and the September trade balance at 8:30 AM, and the October ISM Services PMI at 10:00 AM; the refunding sets the terms for next week's 3-, 10- and 30-year auctions. Thursday carries weekly jobless claims and preliminary third-quarter productivity and costs at 8:30 AM, and Friday the October employment report at 8:30 AM, the preliminary November University of Michigan survey at 10:00 AM and remarks from Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman at 12:15 PM. With the oil-driven inflation impulse partially reversing and the AI-infrastructure trade still being repriced on financing and dilution concerns, the labor data and any post-election shift in the Iran timeline are the inputs most likely to move the December rate path.