Dow posts biggest gain of the year after Democrats sweep Congress
The Dow rose 1,569.40 points, or 3.03%, to 53,356.12, while the S&P 500 gained 1.58% to 7,688.62 and the Nasdaq Composite 1.44% to 25,736.51 as investors digested Democrats' sweeping victories in the midterm congressional elections. Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge said the midterms removed "a major source of uncertainty." Solar power companies, dollar stores and hospital owners led gains, while Trump Media & Technology fell nearly 25% and Tesla fell 3.3%. CBS News
Oil Plunges as Election Shifts Iran Outlook
Brent for January settlement was 8.7% lower at $94.62 a barrel and WTI for December delivery fell 8.3% to settle at $88.12, its biggest drop since May, as investors bet a Democratic sweep in the midterm elections could usher a quicker end to the months-long Iran conflict. Vice President JD Vance directly attributed Republican losses to the overseas conflict, and President Trump told the Financial Times he had no immediate plans to escalate fighting. Trend-following advisers cut Brent long positions to about 55% from 73%. Bloomberg
Gold heads for biggest daily gain since August as dollar weakens
Spot gold rose 3.4% to $4,059.95 an ounce, reclaiming the $4,000 level, and December futures settled 3.4% higher at $4,073 as the dollar fell to a more than one-month low after the Democratic midterm sweep. Traders see about an 83% chance the Fed raises rates in December, according to CME FedWatch. "A strong print may corroborate existing market expectations for Fed hikes on the horizon," said Daniel Ghali of Deutsche Bank, ahead of Friday's payrolls report. Reuters
| Asset | Close | Chg | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500^GSPC | 7,688.62 | +119.70 | +1.58% |
| Nasdaq Composite^IXIC | 25,736.51 | +364.50 | +1.44% |
| Dow Jones^DJI | 53,356.12 | +1,569.40 | +3.03% |
| CBOE Volatility Index^VIX | 16.61 | -4.22 | -20.26% |
| U.S. Dollar IndexDXY · 4:00 PM ET | 101.51 | -0.35 | -0.35% |
| Brent CrudeICE Jan '27 · 2:30 PM ET settle | $94.62 | -$8.98 | -8.67% |
| WTI CrudeNYMEX Dec '26 · 2:30 PM ET settle | $88.12 | -$7.97 | -8.29% |
| GoldCOMEX Dec '26 · 1:30 PM ET | $4,073.10 | +$132.90 | +3.37% |
| Tenor | Close | Chg | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-MonthT-bill | 4.01% | -2bp | -0.50% |
| 3-MonthT-bill | 4.21% | 0bp | +0.00% |
| 6-MonthT-bill | 4.25% | -1bp | -0.23% |
| 1-YearT-note | 4.39% | -1bp | -0.23% |
| 2-YearT-note | 4.58% | -3bp | -0.65% |
| 5-YearT-note | 4.69% | -5bp | -1.05% |
| 10-YearT-note | 4.90% | -5bp | -1.01% |
| 30-YearT-bond | 5.28% | -4bp | -0.75% |
Equities rallied broadly as Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress, a result investors read as removing a major source of uncertainty: the Dow rose 1,569.40 points, or 3.03%, to 53,356.12, its largest gain of the year, the S&P 500 rose 119.70 points, or 1.58%, to 7,688.62 and the Nasdaq Composite 364.50 points, or 1.44%, to 25,736.51, while the VIX fell 4.22 to 16.61, a 20.26% decline. Breadth favored rate- and consumer-sensitive groups over the AI complex: Consumer Discretionary (+4.26%), Financials (+3.51%) and Communication Services (+3.47%) led eight advancing sectors, Technology was flat (-0.01%), and Industrials (-1.09%) and Energy (-4.74%) declined. Mosaic (+17.37%) led S&P 500 gainers ahead of Block (+15.30%), Zimmer Biomet (+13.49%), Moderna (+13.11%) and Stanley Black & Decker (+13.10%). Fidelity National Information Services (-23.67%) was the weakest name, followed by Trimble (-17.31%), Comfort Systems USA (-15.08%), Datadog (-14.42%) and Vistra (-13.83%).
The election repriced the Iran risk premium in crude: January Brent settled $8.98 lower at $94.62 and December WTI $7.97 lower at $88.12, declines of 8.67% and 8.29%, after Vice President Vance attributed Republican losses to the conflict and President Trump signaled no immediate plans to escalate, narrowing the Brent-WTI spread to $6.50 from $7.51. Rates rallied alongside: the 2-year fell 3bp to 4.58%, the 5-year and 10-year 5bp each to 4.69% and 4.90%, and the 30-year 4bp to 5.28%, leaving 2s10s at 32bp (-2bp). The dollar fell to a more than one-month low (DXY 101.51, -0.35), and gold rose 3.37% to $4,073.10 (1:30 PM ET print), its largest daily gain since August, even as CME FedWatch implied about an 83% probability of a December rate hike.
Treasury's refunding set next week's coupon supply at $58bn of 3-year notes on Monday, $42bn of 10-year notes on Tuesday and $25bn of 30-year bonds on Thursday, Nov 12, with Wednesday's Veterans Day holiday in between. Before then, Thursday carries weekly jobless claims and preliminary third-quarter productivity and costs at 8:30 AM, and Friday the October employment report at 8:30 AM, the preliminary November University of Michigan survey at 9:00 AM and remarks from Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman at 12:15 PM. October CPI follows Tuesday at 8:30 AM. With crude's decline lowering the headline inflation impulse while the market still prices a December hike as the most likely outcome, Friday's payrolls and Tuesday's CPI are the inputs most likely to decide whether today's move lower in yields holds.